Technical report: Understanding drivers of recent trends in young people’s mental health

Overview

This report provides further technical detail about the methodology and approach underpining the research commissioned by Youth Futures Foundation and carried out by the University of Manchester and UCL examining the drivers of the decline in mental health among young people.

The approach to evaluate ten theories that could explain changes in youth mental health involved:

• Refining a list of commonly cited theories drawing on input from cross-disciplinary experts
• Exploring the theories in depth
• Examining available evidence of change over time in the relevant factors
• Identifying systematic reviews to scope evidence, prioritising stronger study designs
• Considering subgroup effects in available evidence in relation to broader findings

Information was then synthesised and triangulated with new data analysis to support pragmatic conclusions and highlight remaining gaps and complexities in understanding.

Trends in youth mental health were analysed using nationally representative survey data (Understanding Society) alongside primary care records (Clinical Practice Research Datalink).

Statistical analysis enabled the examination of changes by mental health condition and by subgroups such as gender, ethnicity, region, and deprivation level. Analyses also explored whether young people have become more likely to report symptoms at lower thresholds, and whether there have been changes in levels of resilience over time.